“History never repeats itself but it rhymes”Mark Twain
Happy birthday Bull Market of 2020. It’s been a year since the bottom and an incredible rebound. Now it’s time for the second year of the bull run which historically has been also pretty good.
According to excellent insights from LPL Research, “Even after those historic one-year gains (in 2009), the S&P 500 managed to gain a respectable 15.9% during the second year. It wasn’t an easy ride, however, as there was a 17.1% correction during the second year.”
If history rhymes, should we expect a 15-20% correction of S&P500 during 2021 and then a bounce back to a total 2021 return of about 15-20%?
If so, is there a safe haven uncorrelated with the tech-heavy market-cap-weighed S&P500 index? Is it the time when value stocks and value weighted ETFs will eventually outperform growth assets?